Survivor Soma 11/12/09

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Teviko) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:53:36 PST

Natalie was former Foa Foa, so yes, in the merged tribe she is definitely in the Russell Alliance. Also, if you give any weight to this, he made one of his alliances with her in the very first show, part of the "Dumb-B*tch" alliance, as he called it.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Basileos) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:04:01 PST

Was Natalie ever really in the "Russell alliance"? Just the other week her name was being brought up for the boot. So if Shambo joins them, they might not need Natalie. Maybe. Hard to tell since we don't really know what Russell is thinking. He's never once did a DR where he specifically mentioned a name who he wanted to be in the finals with.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Teviko) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:29:17 PST

In the Russell Alliance, I can see Shambo being more valuable than Natalie and possibly moving up to 4th.

One thing's for sure. Nothing that we've discussed will actually happen for no other reason than it always seems that the actual scenario is different from the speculation.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Big Toe) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:18:18 PST

skeptik wrote:

Assuming Russ finds HII and Jaison wins IC

Jaison win IC? Jaison? Win? Anything? Naaaahhhhhhh. He's a zombie, despite the athletic background he never let's us forget.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (skeptik) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:49:16 PST

At 5-5 (assuming Sham joins FF), the whole dynamic is a house of cards. If Sham forces a tie and FG somehow wins the fire challenge, the numbers at FF+S are now down to 4 with FG at 5 and the FG's have the balance of power on their side. The opposite is true if the tie goes to FF. They will have a 5-4 advantage after Laura is gone.

We haven't seen much maneuvering by the Galu guys. John, Dave and Brett were going to use Sham to get rid of the gals a couple of weeks ago and now that Kelly is out, only Laura and her shadow Monica are left. If JDB make a F4 deal with Sham, she might consider staying with FG. With Mick, Jaison, Russ, and Natalie on FF, I'm thinking Sham is 5th place unless she really believes Russ and his F2 deal.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Basileos) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:34:49 PST

It's one thing to be a "mole" but quite another to force a tie and openly "out" yourself as such. If Shambo has watched past seasons, she knows the person who is the swing vote is particularly vulnerable. So is she going to have the guts to step up this week, or is she going to play it safe and stick with FG for now? It actually might be in her best interest (presuming she has a firm deal with at least Russ) to get rid of one of the FF, presuming of course that she has influence with FG on how the vote should go.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (TigerJohn) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 11:21:23 PST

I agree that Shambo voting for Russel was subterfuge to make former Galu THINK she was on their side, when she is really in a hidden alliance with Russel and former Foa

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Teviko) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:28:02 PST

I'm thinking Shambo is a mole and her Russell vote was an attempt to keep F.G.'s trust, knowing that a Russell vote wasn't going to hurt him. I wouldn't be surprised if she's the one that assured Russell last week, "No, they are not voting for Natalie so you have to play the idol." If this is the case, Shambo should go along with anything FG wants until it's absolutely necessary not to vote with them. That way she can gather information and pass it on.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Basileos) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:11:10 PST

I think next week hinges on who has the HII (if it is anyone), and is it generally known to everybody.

But if we take the HII out of consideration, will Shambo vote with FF to force a tie? I know she likes them better, but I did notice she put Russell's name down, which says to me she doesn't want to burn any bridges either...just in case. But a flat out tie-breaker would lay all her cards out on the table, and I can't imagine that would go over very well. Even though she was 5th wheel in the tribal alliance, people kinda get pissy when someone flips on them, even if they were only using that person for their vote.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (skeptik) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:24:18 PST

Teviko wrote:
So what if they follow Russ. If he finds it, it's his, even if someone is two steps behind him. But everyone will know he has it so they won't vote for him. Well, that's where the Russ Alliance needs to be of one mind on how they use the HII. If they can consider the HII a community idol, regardless of who finds it, then they may very well be able to eliminate another Former Galu (F.G.) member. The trick will be to get a good idea about who the F.G.'s are targeting and make sure they give that person the idol with revealing their hand.

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You are correct. It all hinges on who the FG's target if it is not Russ. Assuming they know Sham is with FF to make it 5 to 5, and Russ has the HII, the FG's could target one of the other FF+S's.

Here is how I would play it: Assuming Russ finds HII and Jaison wins IC, the FF+S's target Laura with 5...

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Teviko) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:45:00 PST

Yes, Russ did promise Shambo a F2. But then again, he promised everyone a F2.

So what if they follow Russ. If he finds it, it's his, even if someone is two steps behind him. But everyone will know he has it so they won't vote for him. Well, that's where the Russ Alliance needs to be of one mind on how they use the HII. If they can consider the HII a community idol, regardless of who finds it, then they may very well be able to eliminate another Former Galu (F.G.) member. The trick will be to get a good idea about who the F.G.'s are targeting and make sure they give that person the idol with revealing their hand.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (skeptik) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 19:11:21 PST

Basileos wrote:
But here is what I want to know. Where does Shambo fit in at Foa? Is she still the fifth wheel like she would be at Galu, or was she given something more tangible? I can bet Russ made a F2 deal with her that we haven't seen, but what other kind of assurances has she gotten from the rest of Foa? I hope they explore that in future episodes.

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I'm running out of space on my DVR so I erase the Surv epi after I watch it, but I thought Russ promised Sham a F2 deal if she would help him. It was the epi after the merge when they voted Erik off(I think) or it was this last week after he found the HII and said he was not going to tell anybody then he showed it to Sham and made the F2 promise then. In either case, he owes her for her help. Russ has a F2 deal with almost everybody. I know he and Jaison (not much face time lately) has a F2 deal. Russ and Natalie have had a F2 deal...

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (TigerJohn) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 11:40:58 PST

Even without a "deal" of any kind, I think Shambo feels DIS-liked at Galu and LIKED at Foa... so she's going with the people who like her

I really hope SOMEBODY from Foa finds the HII before the next TC, so Russhole can repeat the last "this doesn't count" vote

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Basileos) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 03:07:49 PST

It's entirely possible skeptik that Shambo threw them off the scent (Oh, there's no way Russ could have the second HII. etc etc) She seems to be embracing her double agent role fully, so she could have made them feel more secure in the Russ vote.

But here is what I want to know. Where does Shambo fit in at Foa? Is she still the fifth wheel like she would be at Galu, or was she given something more tangible? I can bet Russ made a F2 deal with her that we haven't seen, but what other kind of assurances has she gotten from the rest of Foa? I hope they explore that in future episodes.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (skeptik) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 20:22:54 PST

Shasta7 wrote:
I do have to admit, I like a good blindside, and Dave's jawdrop was amazing to see!...

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How could he be so surprised? At camp he was talking about splitting the vote because Russ could have the HII. They had 6 sure votes plus Shambo, and Foa had only 4 so if they gave Russ 5 votes that only left 2 for Mick. They needed to give Russ 0 votes and Mick the rest, but I guess they hate Russ so much, they did not want to split the vote or target anybody else. The previews seem to show Galu trailing Russ to keep him from finding the HII, so the rest of Foa (plus Sham) needs to step up and find it for the alliance. How sweet would it be next week if Galu keeps Russ from finding the HII, Shambo finds it, gives it to Russ, and he does a replay of last week with Laura going out with her jaw on the floor

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Shasta7) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 19:46:40 PST

I do have to admit, I like a good blindside, and Dave's jawdrop was amazing to see! Like all of you, Russell is growing on me...but if I stand in one spot long enough so does fungus!

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (TigerJohn) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 18:05:37 PST

>despite not having ANY clues, he has managed to find the HII twice

Russhole has clearly watched enough previous seasons to have a good idea of "likely" places to hide the HII - and he was persistent in looking, while others (in BOTH tribes) just sat around with their heads up their... duffle bags

Since next week's preview shows a crew tailing Russhole, the rest of Foa really needs to take a page out of his book and all 3 of them need to do some searching themselves... if any other Foa member finds the HII, and gives it to Russhole before TC, another Galu will be on the way out the door... with any luck at all, it will be Laura

I don't care much for Russhole's arrogance... but do realize that such may just be game play to get more face time... but will have to say that his play of the HII was really GREAT at the last TC

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (skeptik) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 17:46:47 PST

Basileos wrote:
As for Russ, while I still do not like him (positive edit or not) I do have to say well played! Though I do find it a bit odd that somehow, despite not having ANY clues, he has managed to find the HII twice.

____-
Simple, just walk over to where the camera man is pointing his camera.

I don't know if Shambo's fake vote for Russ was enough to throw the rest of Galu off the track, but it will be interesting to see how Russ maneuvers out of the target next time.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Basileos) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:33:02 PST

ctbigbear wrote:
I was just thinking, if the Foa Foa people can pull Shambo over to their side they will be five to five. Also, despite what people said in TC, Galu is not a unified group.

Despite her vote for Russell (which she knew would not even count anyway) she has already stated in DR that she is working with Foa, so I think they can relax a bit there.

As for Russ, while I still do not like him (positive edit or not) I do have to say well played! Though I do find it a bit odd that somehow, despite not having ANY clues, he has managed to find the HII twice.

Re: Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (skeptik) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:14:50 PST

Boy, did I call it or what? I predicted Russ finding the re-hidden HII and not going after last week's episode. I've been in Ft Worth all week but managed to see the show last night.

There are 2 scenarios for Russell and the Foa 4 to play out next week. 1) We see in the previews Laura is running Galu and has her minions tailing Russ all day to make sure he doesn't find the HII so I don't see him finding it and blindsiding the Galu-idiots again next week. Galu is not sure Shambo has switched to Foa, so if Shambo can be a spy and determine who Galu is targeting, and the HII is found by a Foa, they can do the HII blindside again and possibly get rid of Laura by giving the HII to the Galu target. 2) Assuming Russ and Laura do not have the IN and are the mortal enemies we saw in the previews, Shambo switches and the vote is 5-5 Russ and Laura. IIRC, we do a fire start challenge and I'll assume Russ wins and sends Laura to the jury so we have the Foa 4...

Survivor Soma 11/12/09

feeds@kickapps.com (Ocean923) — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:03:42 PST

Russell Russell Russell - When this season started I wanted this dude gone gone gone but I find myself jumping up and down now. FINALLY FINALLY a contestant that has watched the pasted seasons of Survivor and is playing the game. Of course he can find the HII everyone else should be able to also - it's not rocket science!

You Go Russell

okay I admit - Shambo too - she is growing on me if for nothing else spoiler at some point!!!!!